This is an intro to a news story, about a similar natural dam burst on the Indus River, from 170 years ago, to what is now about to unfold in Pakistan - when the Hunza natural dam bursts. It is from the "far away" and idyllic days of 1840 - when Pakistan didn't exist and the British had not yet fully established their Indian Empire, but were in the final stages of doing so. But things may not be as idyllic in the present situation, as Pakistan's major hydroelectric dam - the Tarbela Dam - is just a few hundred miles downriver; it is Pakistan's electricity generating and irrigation mainstay. There is every likelihood it will be severely damaged, if not washed away - with consequences not only severely affecting those two infrastructural requirements, but also causing cataclysmic flooding. At 40 miles long, Tarbela Dam is the world's largest earth-filled dam, and was built for Pakistan by the an international consortium that included the Tennessee Valley Authority. Pakistan's most populous and grain producing areas, as well as industrial estates, line the banks of the Indus River, in what is known as the Indus Valley. Not only this, but some of Pakistan's key civilian-use nuclear power reactors such as the Chashma I and II are positioned on the banks of this river, and these are suspect by international observers as being of "dual use". So the situation is definitely different from that of 1840, when a Sikh army camped by the riverside was washed away...
I have decided to give the link, as well as include the story in full here:
[Hunza lake: history may repeat itself
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=240939
Monday, May 24, 2010
Bureau report
PESHAWAR: The risk of flood in Hunza, Gilgit and the downcountry as a result of the lake formed at Attaabad due to a landslide isn’t the first time that a natural disaster of such a big magnitude is posing threat to life and property in the area.
In 1840, a similar situation arose at Boonji in Gilgit area and caused a devastating flood. History buff Ali Jan has sent excerpts from Edward W Knight’s book, Where Three Empires: A Narrative of Recent Travel in Kashmir, Western Tibet, Gilgit and the Adjoining Countries, in which he writes about the 1840 flood. The book was published by Longmans, Green & Co., 1905.
The author Edward Knight wrote that the flood started in Gilgit after a landslide as a huge chunk of mountain fell into the River Indus, blocked the flow of water and formed a long and deep lake that burst and caused devastation. The flood not only damaged land and habitation downstream but it also swept away the Sikh army camping by the riverside in faraway Attock.
Ali Jan has also posed a question: Is history repeating itself? One hopes it doesn’t happen this time. Below is the relevant excerpt from that book: “Boonji signifies fifty in the language of these parts, and the name as it is said was given to this district because there were once fifty villages and considerable cultivation in the now desert vale of the Indus between the mouths of the Astor and Gilgit streams. An extraordinary flood in 1840, which is striking example of the huge scale of the convulsions of Nature in this region of gigantic mountains, was no doubt the primary cause of the present desolation. Near Hattu Pir, a whole mountain suddenly fell into the Indus, forming a great dam across the river, and preventing all outlets. The waters rose behind this dam for six months, flooding all the plain of Boonji and the valley of the Gilgit River, till a lake was formed 35 miles in length, and of great depth. At last, the rising lake reached the top of the dam, overflowed it, forced a breach, and then, with irresistible power, the immense mass of water opened a broad, deep channel through the opposing mountain. The liberated Indus once more rushed down its gorges and the last lake was drained in one day. Hundreds of miles away, the great wave of the flood overwhelmed a Sikh army that was encamped near Attock, and the loss of life and property all down the valley of Indus was beyond computation.”]
N.B: The Indus Valley is a huge area, 1700 miles long - and straddles the whole length of Pakistan right through the center, from top to bottom (Kamilov).
Below is a letter to the editor of the same newspaper - by a former princeling from one of Pakistan's defunct royal families, who has also served as provincial governor. He is from the Taliban-infested district of Swat, which was till 1969 an independent principality. He goes by one name, Aurangzeb. He has this to say about the dam now poised above the head of Pakistan:
[Never in a hurry
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=240831
Sunday, May 23, 2010
We are never in a hurry. It is five years since the earthquake destroyed the Margalla apartment building. Today it is as it was then and nothing has been done. The Shaheed-e-Millat building was burnt and it took CDA ten years to repair. I can go on giving examples of our inability, but right now the government is ignoring the catastrophe that is about to happen in Hunza. The huge lake formed by a landslide on the Hunza river is about to burst, the water destroying everything in its way, perhaps Tarbela dam also.
To add insult to injury, the newly appointed governor of Gilgit-Baltistan has said that the dam created by the landslide 'will not burst'. Despite what this lady says, I want to warn the government of the coming catastrophe for which no one will take responsibility -- neither she nor the minister for water and power.
Aurangzeb
Swat]
Finally, let me round this off by quoting the inevitable local two-bit conspiracy theorists who also have a say in all such things. There are rumours that the Pakistani government deliberately allowed the dam to form, so as to help "confound" US policy in the region...while I can't even for a minute stop to sense who will actually be confounded, and how laughably stupid Pakistani rumour mongers are - the idea also crossed my mind, but in a different way: that in allowing this to happen, it will help "wash away" a lot of the dirt that Pakistan's ruling classes having generated, have beset themselves with; they will be hoping with typical naïvete that this catastrophe washes away the attention from them, and gives them a breather to cling onto power anew - so as to repeat their sordid old story; but I can assure them that they needn't be so simplistic now - for this will be the catastrophe NEEDED to wash THEM away in their entirety - a biblical cleansing flood; this is actually the time-bomb that will herald THEIR demise...
Monday, May 24, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
THE REAL SECRET OF US GEOPOLITICS
Since its own oil production peaked and then began declining in 1970, the US gradually became aware that the world's petroleum supplies were limited and would run out eventually after peaking in output. This is called Peak Oil. Petroleum is the lifeblood of modern civilisation in every sense of the word. And that is not a sweeping exaggeration: its advanced technology and high living standards and mode of lifestyle all depend on it. After 1970 the US began to increase its imports of petroleum. Shortly after US production peaked and declined, the 1973 Arab oil embargo showed the Americans how vulnerable and disruptable its supplies of oil were. The US determined where the main global reserves existed, and began drawing up strategic plans for all these contingencies: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Sheikdoms were the main focus, followed by Iraq and Iran and then the Soviet Union. In 1979, President Carter issued a policy statement proclaiming the right of the US to use force in the Persian Gulf region to defend its "interests" in oil, using the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan as an excuse. This became known as the Carter Doctrine, and was to become the foundation for post-Cold War US policy after a short while, when the US was free of its Soviet entanglement. The US already had a firm footing in the Gulf Arab states and Saudi Arabia; Iraq was a variable, but options were being drawn up to tackle it; it was not a threat at the moment as it was involved in a war with Iran, with convenient US blessings. Thus it was being kept busy for later "treatment", while also engaging a US enemy. The US had stepped up its Cold War rivalry with the USSR using the Soviet action in Afghanistan as a convenient springboard. It hoped to bleed it dry there, and in doing so not only rid itself of its global adversary, but also eyed its vast petroleum potential - in reserves, being the second in the world after the Saudis. The USSR's clout in the world began declining for various reasons in the late 1980s - its defeat and pullout from Afghanistan, Gorbachev's reforms, and the START weapons treaty with the US in 1986. The Soviet Bloc began crumbling in the end of 1988. In that same year, the Iran Iraq war ended in a draw, and Saddam and his army's prestige was buoyed and his attention was freed, to contemplate other things. He was subtly being prodded and set up to annex Kuwait next, by the US with whispers of support -ostensibly to restore morale for his war weary army and nation and regain Kuwait's vast oil supplies, to which Iraq already had an irredentist claim. But this was a carefully contrived American gamble. Saddam Hussein was over-confident, and played into their hands. In 1990 began the Gulf War, and by 1991, it was over with America's Desert Storm having pulverised Iraq even further. The Soviet Union was in its terminal throes, and could pose no threat. The Anglo-American led "allies" set up aerial control and exclusion zones over Iraq, and Saddam and his regime was paralysed, but was allowed to remain in power - as a mere empty shell compared to its former status. It was to be reserved in this handy way, for future consideration. That same year the USSR finally gave way and "went the way of all flesh". President G.W. Bush grandly declared a New World Order of America's supreme overlordship over a "globalising world". The US had been eyeing the Soviet Caspian Sea and Russian oil reserves all along. Now with the demise of the USSR, the way to it was open. While the Russian reserves proper were on Russian territory and the Russian Federation was the USSR's successor - they would be relatively difficult to access and corporate guile would be employed to get at those. But the Caspian was a different case, as its region was now independent of Russian control, and comprised of several small states. But disappointment was to strike American planners, as a few years later it became apparent that the Caspian reserves were far less than had been presumed, and were of a far lesser quality. Still, in order to access the tremendous gas reserves in Turkmenistan, the US played its al-Qaeda and Taliban cards in Afghanistan, so as to use that shattered country as a pipeline conduit, which was to terminate in US ally, Pakistan. The US also permitted Pakistan to partner in this, and to pursue its own various jihadi policies in the region - in an auxiliary role to the main US plan for the region. After the Caspian disappointment, the US strategic planners realised that time was short, and alternate measures to secure oil had to be put in place. So now attention was quickly turned to Iraq, which was now tattered and in a state of limbo. The Taliban regime too, was proving increasingly intransigent in Afghanistan with its US-Pakistani handlers - and becoming a dangerous thorn in their sides. Many therefore say that the US "encouraged" and allowed the 9/11 attacks of 2001 to occur; they knew what the jihadis were brewing against them, but they permitted it to happen - so as to furnish them with the perfect excuse for setting the world aflame - during which melee they would gain an excuse to invade and take direct control of Afghanistan, to secure it as a future geopolitical staging post in the coming complex scenario. And 9/11 would also give them an excuse, albeit very pigheaded, to frame and then invade Iraq. The case in point being the WMD lie regarding Iraq's weapons potential. It fell through later, but it had served its triggering purpose. The 2003 Iraq war was all about oil. As detailed above, it had been on the US agenda for quite long, but when the US found that the Caspian reserves were worthless, the urgency regarding Iraq grew. In the end it will be pertinent to say that even in the case of the impossible scenario of the US appropriating the whole world's petroleum supplies, the rate at which they use - rather misuse - it, will ensure that it will all be depleted within this century. The global power of the US, and indeed its own existence, in the next few years is, therefore, in grave doubt.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
GEOPOLITICS THROUGH THE EYES OF A PAKISTANI INTELLIGENCE OPERATIVE - with commentary in brackets by F.Kamilov
Intro: Briefly, this region is a Poker board, and we (Paki) people are the "cards", in the hands of some very strong and serious players. Because of our geographical location, our area will always be volatile. There are too many factors that are affecting and stopping this area from settling down.
1) India and China, the two biggest consumer markets of the world are present here. They are rivals, and about to become the two biggest economies as well. But both have some very serious internal problems. (They are ostensibly have the biggest economic potential, but that is in doubt as their very survival depends upon regular external access to massive energy supplies. Geopolitically speaking they are "non-aligned", i.e unpredictable and indeterminate "opportunistic" quantities. But they are highly unstable due to their above dependency, and thus with their massive populations, any "explosion" of them would send far reaching effects).
2) Iran is here, sitting on the door step of the Persian Gulf, is thinking of playing a decisive role in the affairs of the region in the time to come . While neighboring Iraq is now thanks to America, a powder keg. (Iran is a regional issue - however as such, it is a potential future junior strategic partner for Russia, and a sharp local irritant for the USA in this key region).
3) Russia is in this area, and is presently the 9th biggest economy and 4th largest military power, and a very serious player in providing the world with crucial energy supplies. (Russia is the next overall superpower in waiting - awaiting resurrection in future conditions as an even better power than the USSR was. As such, it is the USA's main global rival).
4) In between all this are we: Pakistan - a nuclear (wannabe) Power, with so many internal and external problems (!) and enemies. As they say: If you can't handle (i.e face) a mess (a situation which you on your own are not brave enough to handle) alone, so enlarge the canvas and involve others in your problem. (I wouldn't quite agree; you are by nature cowards and little lickspittle toadies. You haven't "involved" the Anglo-Americans for that; instead it is quite the opposite: you've shamelessly agreed to lick their shit in exchange for protection, sustenance and rich pickings from them, by serving them as dirty little undelings in their Great Game of World Domination. But alas, that has not turned out to be the cosy arrangement that it was originally intended by both you parties to be - there have been severe "unintended consequences". However, given the nature of what you were doing and your alliance - there had to be).
Summary: So we must keep in mind the above mentioned situations on the one hand, versus the presence of Americans in the Middle East and here on the other. The Americans have maintained military bases for the last 60 years in Japan, Korea, Philippines - and now here - to ensure their upper hand in the post WW2 world; (America's justification to dominate the world - when it became capable of this role after 1945 - was at first seemingly ideological: to ensure "free enterprise". But after 1991 when it won the Cold War, this prestense was dropped, and the truth came to the fore: it controls the world in order to ensure the availability and continuity of resources needed to sustain its free-wheeling "American Way of Life"....) Their rivals don't want them to retain this global control so easily. All the major players [Russia, China] are going to make sure that they bleed American resources to extinction: the only way they can do that is by keeping [anti-US] unrest in the region alive. It is always easy to keep resistance movements like the Taliban (which originally you yourselves created) smouldering (to keep the heat on America) by supplying them with small amounts of weapons, food, money - while on the other hand finishing such movements is always an expensive affair. (And thus it pays for you to be the servants of the Anglo-Americans, to enable them to fend off their rivals and keep their global stranglehold; too bad, you have chosen the defeated side to serve, and place your bets on. And don't think they will continue relying on you much longer; you might soon not be there - even now, you have become more of a headache for them, no longer a help. That is indeed the situation since 2001 - it also being the logical outcome of such a foul caper).
1) India and China, the two biggest consumer markets of the world are present here. They are rivals, and about to become the two biggest economies as well. But both have some very serious internal problems. (They are ostensibly have the biggest economic potential, but that is in doubt as their very survival depends upon regular external access to massive energy supplies. Geopolitically speaking they are "non-aligned", i.e unpredictable and indeterminate "opportunistic" quantities. But they are highly unstable due to their above dependency, and thus with their massive populations, any "explosion" of them would send far reaching effects).
2) Iran is here, sitting on the door step of the Persian Gulf, is thinking of playing a decisive role in the affairs of the region in the time to come . While neighboring Iraq is now thanks to America, a powder keg. (Iran is a regional issue - however as such, it is a potential future junior strategic partner for Russia, and a sharp local irritant for the USA in this key region).
3) Russia is in this area, and is presently the 9th biggest economy and 4th largest military power, and a very serious player in providing the world with crucial energy supplies. (Russia is the next overall superpower in waiting - awaiting resurrection in future conditions as an even better power than the USSR was. As such, it is the USA's main global rival).
4) In between all this are we: Pakistan - a nuclear (wannabe) Power, with so many internal and external problems (!) and enemies. As they say: If you can't handle (i.e face) a mess (a situation which you on your own are not brave enough to handle) alone, so enlarge the canvas and involve others in your problem. (I wouldn't quite agree; you are by nature cowards and little lickspittle toadies. You haven't "involved" the Anglo-Americans for that; instead it is quite the opposite: you've shamelessly agreed to lick their shit in exchange for protection, sustenance and rich pickings from them, by serving them as dirty little undelings in their Great Game of World Domination. But alas, that has not turned out to be the cosy arrangement that it was originally intended by both you parties to be - there have been severe "unintended consequences". However, given the nature of what you were doing and your alliance - there had to be).
Summary: So we must keep in mind the above mentioned situations on the one hand, versus the presence of Americans in the Middle East and here on the other. The Americans have maintained military bases for the last 60 years in Japan, Korea, Philippines - and now here - to ensure their upper hand in the post WW2 world; (America's justification to dominate the world - when it became capable of this role after 1945 - was at first seemingly ideological: to ensure "free enterprise". But after 1991 when it won the Cold War, this prestense was dropped, and the truth came to the fore: it controls the world in order to ensure the availability and continuity of resources needed to sustain its free-wheeling "American Way of Life"....) Their rivals don't want them to retain this global control so easily. All the major players [Russia, China] are going to make sure that they bleed American resources to extinction: the only way they can do that is by keeping [anti-US] unrest in the region alive. It is always easy to keep resistance movements like the Taliban (which originally you yourselves created) smouldering (to keep the heat on America) by supplying them with small amounts of weapons, food, money - while on the other hand finishing such movements is always an expensive affair. (And thus it pays for you to be the servants of the Anglo-Americans, to enable them to fend off their rivals and keep their global stranglehold; too bad, you have chosen the defeated side to serve, and place your bets on. And don't think they will continue relying on you much longer; you might soon not be there - even now, you have become more of a headache for them, no longer a help. That is indeed the situation since 2001 - it also being the logical outcome of such a foul caper).
Friday, March 12, 2010
Pakistan spirals towards its deserved predicament
NEWS HEADLINE: Pakistan, US agree on new Afghan set-up
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
ISLAMABAD: A strategic shift in Pakistan’s three-decade old Afghan policy has taken a quiet but effective shape as Islamabad has successfully negotiated a peace plan with Mustafa Zahir Shah, the grandson of late King Zahir Shah, who would play a key role in future political dispensation comprising all ethnic groups. “It is a strategic coup by Pakistan against rising Indian influence in Afghanistan,” an analyst tartly remarked commenting on the development. As Islamabad has agreed to untangle the complicated jihadist network fabricated by General Ziaul Haq in 1979, it has acquired ‘iron-clad’ guarantees from Washington and other world capitals to gain advantages not only in regional political and economic affairs but also to get peaceful nuclear technology related benefits, sources privy to the most significant development taking place in the region in more than quarter a century, claimed.
Prime Minister Gilani’s spokesperson Shabbir Anwar, when contacted, said Pakistan wanted peace in Afghanistan. “We will do whatever we can in strengthening of the political institutions in Afghanistan.”
Anwar, however, said the Foreign Office would be in a better position to comment on such a development. The foreign office spokesman could not be reached despite repeated attempts as his cell phone was switched off.
“Karzai is fast becoming a seat-warmer for Mustafa Zahir Shah,” a diplomat commented. “But the young leader will have to perform a very complicated balancing act by satisfying both sides of the ethnic divides in the world’s one of the least governable countries.”
To continue to have a political foothold in Afghanistan and counter Pakistan’s thriving liaison with Mustafa Zahir Shah and the Northern Alliance, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh went to Saudi Arabia to get help in establishing contacts with Taliban. Saudi Arabia reportedly has refused to oblige.
According to the clinched deal, Islamabad would help cobble together a consensus political dispensation in Kabul comprising all ethnic groups, help ensure its stability, dismantle the dreaded militant infrastructure and carefully comb its security apparatus to avert the rise of radicalism. On all counts, Pakistan has already started delivering and brick-by-brick demolition of Jehadi infrastructure has already set in motion. A high-level Pakistani delegation held a final round of negotiations with Mustafa Zahir Shah and Northern Alliance in Kabul a couple of weeks ago.
Islamabad’s diplomatic circles are abuzz with this new, exciting development taking shape during the last few weeks. “To convince Mustafa Zahir Shah to lead, and make the leaderships of Northern Alliance and Taliban share power among themselves is a major breakthrough successfully engineered by Pakistan to reclaim its lost position in Afghanistan,” the sources said.
In addition to winning over the confidence of Mustafa Zahir Shah, the weaning off Northern Alliance from India is the most important milestone in Pakistan’s foreign policy as ties between the two sides had been strained for Islamabad’s tilt towards Taliban. As final touches are being given to level the rough contours of this win-win policy, the diplomatic sources in Islamabad are attributing great significance to the sudden dash of Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani to Kabul over the weekend.
In return for the success of this policy, the sources claimed, Washington has given guarantees to Islamabad that it would support Pakistan’s efforts to buy nuclear power plants from France for peaceful purposes, limit India’s political role in Afghanistan and Pakistan would have the right to buy oil and gas on less-than-market price from the proposed oil and gas pipelines originating from Central Asia and Afghanistan to India. The royalty that Pakistan would earn on these energy pipelines passing through its territory would be in addition to the above benefits.
DG ISPR Maj-Gen Athar Abbas, when contacted to ask if Pakistani officials were engaged in negotiating such an understanding with the help of the US and the Nato in return for political and economic benefits of the country, he said: “It is a political issue and I have no comments”.
When asked about the high level contacts between Pakistani officials and Mustafa Zahir Shah and Northern Alliance leaders, Abbas said: “Not to my knowledge.” The arrests of top Taliban commanders from Mulla Abdul Ghani Baradar two weeks ago to Abu Yehya Gadan over the weekend is a testament to Islamabad’s sincere commitment with this new approach.
In his weekend visit Gen Kayani met Afghan President Hamid Karzai to, what the sources said, discuss his role, if any, in the new setup. Almost a week prior to Kayani’s visit to Kabul, a high-level delegation comprising officials who have been handling the Afghan strategy for decades, visited Kabul and met Mustafa to finalise the future peace plan for Afghanistan. The success has been reached following a series of behind-the-scene meetings in and outside Pakistan between Pakistani officials, Mustafa Zahir Shah, Saudi and US officials, and key leaders of Northern Alliance who have earlier been sceptical of Islamabad’s intentions.
The difference this time would be that Pakistan would ensure the acceptance of this new formula both by the Northern Alliance and Taliban with Mustafa Zahir Shah leading the brood. Sources claimed that the new plan would guarantee Pakistan’s political and economic interests in the region as well as the existence of a peaceful Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US and the Nato troops.
The sources claimed that the establishment is quite serious now in reigning in radical elements who have been creating difficulties for Pakistan in the past. “Now they will not be given a free hand anymore and the elements within the establishment supporting such ideologies and activities would be sidelined in the next round of promotions starting from next month,” source said.
KAMILOV'S COMMENTS
Pakistan doesn’t have the power anymore to broker such deals. Pakistan is finishing – and its failure is not ethnic or geographic, but is structural and social in nature….
It is true that the Jihadi cycle is at its end: but that ending is also indicative of Pakistan’s failure. Like a great narcotic, it raised Pakistan to “new heights” in the post-1992 world – but soon it affected its health like all narcotics do, sending Pakistan plummeting into terminal affliction: it began to eat into Pakitan’s vitals, and started confronting the New World Order which Pakistan’s Anglo-American masters had triumphantly crafted. Even so, the forcible nullification of the Jihadi malignancy after 9/11 by those who had nurtured it in the Pakistani nursery – the Westerners – was to Pakistan what the cutting-off to a man of his penis is.
Pakistan itself is a purely British imperialist creation, whose rulership was bestowed gratefully on their faithful Punjabi servant dogs. Its patronage was quickly inherited by the “Second Anglo Imperium” – the USA when it became the successor of the British after World War II. In its present tattered and diseased state, however, it is of no use to it masters – rather a dangerous liability like virulent or radioactive material becomes.
Now, just before the start of World War III - with the general international downturn of the Western world clearly in sight, it is doubtful whether Pakistan’s masters will be able to keep it on the life-supporting aid by which they have sustained their improbable parasite pet for over six decades, ruled by the most improbable of thugs.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
ISLAMABAD: A strategic shift in Pakistan’s three-decade old Afghan policy has taken a quiet but effective shape as Islamabad has successfully negotiated a peace plan with Mustafa Zahir Shah, the grandson of late King Zahir Shah, who would play a key role in future political dispensation comprising all ethnic groups. “It is a strategic coup by Pakistan against rising Indian influence in Afghanistan,” an analyst tartly remarked commenting on the development. As Islamabad has agreed to untangle the complicated jihadist network fabricated by General Ziaul Haq in 1979, it has acquired ‘iron-clad’ guarantees from Washington and other world capitals to gain advantages not only in regional political and economic affairs but also to get peaceful nuclear technology related benefits, sources privy to the most significant development taking place in the region in more than quarter a century, claimed.
Prime Minister Gilani’s spokesperson Shabbir Anwar, when contacted, said Pakistan wanted peace in Afghanistan. “We will do whatever we can in strengthening of the political institutions in Afghanistan.”
Anwar, however, said the Foreign Office would be in a better position to comment on such a development. The foreign office spokesman could not be reached despite repeated attempts as his cell phone was switched off.
“Karzai is fast becoming a seat-warmer for Mustafa Zahir Shah,” a diplomat commented. “But the young leader will have to perform a very complicated balancing act by satisfying both sides of the ethnic divides in the world’s one of the least governable countries.”
To continue to have a political foothold in Afghanistan and counter Pakistan’s thriving liaison with Mustafa Zahir Shah and the Northern Alliance, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh went to Saudi Arabia to get help in establishing contacts with Taliban. Saudi Arabia reportedly has refused to oblige.
According to the clinched deal, Islamabad would help cobble together a consensus political dispensation in Kabul comprising all ethnic groups, help ensure its stability, dismantle the dreaded militant infrastructure and carefully comb its security apparatus to avert the rise of radicalism. On all counts, Pakistan has already started delivering and brick-by-brick demolition of Jehadi infrastructure has already set in motion. A high-level Pakistani delegation held a final round of negotiations with Mustafa Zahir Shah and Northern Alliance in Kabul a couple of weeks ago.
Islamabad’s diplomatic circles are abuzz with this new, exciting development taking shape during the last few weeks. “To convince Mustafa Zahir Shah to lead, and make the leaderships of Northern Alliance and Taliban share power among themselves is a major breakthrough successfully engineered by Pakistan to reclaim its lost position in Afghanistan,” the sources said.
In addition to winning over the confidence of Mustafa Zahir Shah, the weaning off Northern Alliance from India is the most important milestone in Pakistan’s foreign policy as ties between the two sides had been strained for Islamabad’s tilt towards Taliban. As final touches are being given to level the rough contours of this win-win policy, the diplomatic sources in Islamabad are attributing great significance to the sudden dash of Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani to Kabul over the weekend.
In return for the success of this policy, the sources claimed, Washington has given guarantees to Islamabad that it would support Pakistan’s efforts to buy nuclear power plants from France for peaceful purposes, limit India’s political role in Afghanistan and Pakistan would have the right to buy oil and gas on less-than-market price from the proposed oil and gas pipelines originating from Central Asia and Afghanistan to India. The royalty that Pakistan would earn on these energy pipelines passing through its territory would be in addition to the above benefits.
DG ISPR Maj-Gen Athar Abbas, when contacted to ask if Pakistani officials were engaged in negotiating such an understanding with the help of the US and the Nato in return for political and economic benefits of the country, he said: “It is a political issue and I have no comments”.
When asked about the high level contacts between Pakistani officials and Mustafa Zahir Shah and Northern Alliance leaders, Abbas said: “Not to my knowledge.” The arrests of top Taliban commanders from Mulla Abdul Ghani Baradar two weeks ago to Abu Yehya Gadan over the weekend is a testament to Islamabad’s sincere commitment with this new approach.
In his weekend visit Gen Kayani met Afghan President Hamid Karzai to, what the sources said, discuss his role, if any, in the new setup. Almost a week prior to Kayani’s visit to Kabul, a high-level delegation comprising officials who have been handling the Afghan strategy for decades, visited Kabul and met Mustafa to finalise the future peace plan for Afghanistan. The success has been reached following a series of behind-the-scene meetings in and outside Pakistan between Pakistani officials, Mustafa Zahir Shah, Saudi and US officials, and key leaders of Northern Alliance who have earlier been sceptical of Islamabad’s intentions.
The difference this time would be that Pakistan would ensure the acceptance of this new formula both by the Northern Alliance and Taliban with Mustafa Zahir Shah leading the brood. Sources claimed that the new plan would guarantee Pakistan’s political and economic interests in the region as well as the existence of a peaceful Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US and the Nato troops.
The sources claimed that the establishment is quite serious now in reigning in radical elements who have been creating difficulties for Pakistan in the past. “Now they will not be given a free hand anymore and the elements within the establishment supporting such ideologies and activities would be sidelined in the next round of promotions starting from next month,” source said.
KAMILOV'S COMMENTS
Pakistan doesn’t have the power anymore to broker such deals. Pakistan is finishing – and its failure is not ethnic or geographic, but is structural and social in nature….
It is true that the Jihadi cycle is at its end: but that ending is also indicative of Pakistan’s failure. Like a great narcotic, it raised Pakistan to “new heights” in the post-1992 world – but soon it affected its health like all narcotics do, sending Pakistan plummeting into terminal affliction: it began to eat into Pakitan’s vitals, and started confronting the New World Order which Pakistan’s Anglo-American masters had triumphantly crafted. Even so, the forcible nullification of the Jihadi malignancy after 9/11 by those who had nurtured it in the Pakistani nursery – the Westerners – was to Pakistan what the cutting-off to a man of his penis is.
Pakistan itself is a purely British imperialist creation, whose rulership was bestowed gratefully on their faithful Punjabi servant dogs. Its patronage was quickly inherited by the “Second Anglo Imperium” – the USA when it became the successor of the British after World War II. In its present tattered and diseased state, however, it is of no use to it masters – rather a dangerous liability like virulent or radioactive material becomes.
Now, just before the start of World War III - with the general international downturn of the Western world clearly in sight, it is doubtful whether Pakistan’s masters will be able to keep it on the life-supporting aid by which they have sustained their improbable parasite pet for over six decades, ruled by the most improbable of thugs.
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